Traditional forecasting techniques often fail to predict major events, particularly terror related events like we had over the weekend in New York. Consequently, important opportunities and serious threats may be overlooked and the very survival of a lot of people may be at stake.
We have to be very careful. Hundreds of possible groups could be responsible and they've all not been looked at. It is still early days and this article is pure speculation and a cautionary tale.
Scenario planning is a tool specifically designed to deal with major, uncertain events in life. With its roots in military strategy studies, a researcher, Herman Kahn, was an early founder of scenario-based planning in his work related to the possible scenarios associated with thermonuclear war ("thinking the unthinkable").
However, how does one plan when the devil is from within? When the devil is your average 40 year bloke who, thank goodness for cameras, is caught changing shirts [bear in mind he mightn't be responsible]?
When at the start of the weekend, a group praying for the demise of potus reaches the 1 million member mark?
When the filth spewed by palin, fox and posse is more virulent now than ever before?
Who is to say this isn't a reanimation of the T. McVeigh situation? These ignorami (palin et. al.) open their traps and spew manure with no idea what the impact may be. When it hits the ventilator like with McVeigh in '94 they stand back proclaiming - 'no harm no foul'. Just exercising first ammendment rights.
What about our fourteenth ammendment rights? The main clauses of the Fourteenth Amendment are:
Section. 1. All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside. No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.
Section. 5. The Congress shall have power to enforce, by appropriate legislation, the provisions of this article.
This seemingly simple language has given rise to endless controversy over its interpretation. Beginning with the Slaughterhouse Cases, the Supreme Court has decided cases involving the Fourteenth by selectively invoking only the most minimal and restrictive rights needed to decide each case, and never finding or declaring in dictum that the Fourteenth protects all rights recognized by the Constitution.
The moral of the story:
'Concervatives, tea party, palin, oreilly, hannity, fox channel' - have been running around sharing the products of their warped minds and stoked so much hate against POTUS and government all in the guise of 'conservatism' and other choice descriptors that make the venom more palatable to them. We can all sit back and say; 'well, no, they really didn't' - but i say to you it is the thinking behind their words that concerns me. It is that same thinking not what they say - we all know they are challenged in the skill of self expression, that leads to terror situations. A discussion quickly deteriorates into ad hominem.